IATA foresees passenger demand doubling in 20 years

Massive growth in the Asia-Pacific region is behind a new projection by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) that foresees 7.2 billion passengers flying in 2035, a near doubling of this year’s 3.8 billion air travellers.

IATA warned against protectionist trends in its latest pronouncement.

It’s prediction is based on a 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to IATA’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.

“People want to fly. Demand for air travel over the next two decades is set to double. Enabling people and nations to trade, explore, and share the benefits of innovation and economic prosperity makes our world a better place,” said IATA director general and chief executive, Alexandre de Juniac.

Eastward shift, developing market focus

The forecast for passenger growth confirms that the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region. It is expected to be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next 20 years. China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market (defined by traffic to, from and within the country) around 2029.

India will displace the UK for third place in 2026, while Indonesia enters the top ten at the expense of Italy. Growth will also increasingly be driven within developing markets. Over the past decade the developing world’s share of total passenger traffic has risen from 24% to nearly 40%, and this trend is set to continue.

The 20-year forecast puts forward three scenarios. The central scenario foresees a doubling of passengers with a 3.7% annual CAGR. If trade liberalisation gathers pace, demand could triple the 2015 level. Conversely, if the current trend towards trade protectionism gathers strength, growth could cool to 2.5% annual CAGR which would see passenger numbers reach 5.8 billion by 2035.

“Economic growth is the only durable solution for the world’s current economic woes,” de Juniac said.

“Yet we see governments raising barriers to trade rather than making it easier. If this continues in the long-term, it will mean slower growth and the world will be poorer for it. For aviation, the protectionist scenario could see growth slowing to as low as 2.5% annually. Not only will that mean fewer new aviation jobs, it will mean that instead of 7.2 billion travellers in 2035, we will have 5.8 billion. The economic impact of that will be broad and hard-felt.”.

Whatever scenario is eventually realized, growth will put pressure on infrastructure that is already struggling to cope with demand.

“Runways, terminals, security and baggage systems, air traffic control, and a whole raft of other elements need to be expanded to be ready for the growing number of flyers. It cannot be done by the industry alone. Planning for change requires governments, communities and the industry working together in partnership,” said de Juniac.

The industry will also need to be able to grow sustainably. Earlier this month airlines supported the establishment of a Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). This landmark agreement – the first among governments to manage the emissions growth of an entire global industrial sector – aims to cap net emissions with carbon neutral growth from 2020.

“Aviation is at the forefront of industries in managing its carbon footprint,” de Juniac said.

“Along with offsetting emissions through CORSIA, airlines are working with partners in industry and government to advance technology, improve operations and generate more efficiencies in infrastructure.”

Fast-growing markets

The five fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be:

  • China (817 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion)
  • US (484 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion)
  • India (322 million new passengers for a total of 442 million)
  • Indonesia (135 million new passengers for a total of 242 million)
  • Vietnam (112 million new passengers for a total of 150 million).

The top ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa: Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Madagascar. Each of these markets is expected to grow by more than 8% each year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.
Regional growth

Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2035, for an overall market size of 3.1 billion. Its annual average growth rate of 4.7% will be the second-highest, behind the Middle East.
The North American region will grow by 2.8% annually and in 2035 will carry a total of 1.3 billion passengers, an additional 536 million passengers per year.
Europe will have the slowest growth rate, 2.5%, but will still add an additional 570 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.5 billion passengers.

Latin American markets will grow by 3.8%, serving a total of 658 million passengers, an additional 345 million passengers annually compared to today.

The Middle East will grow strongly (5.0%) and will see an extra 258 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2035. The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of 6.3%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The total market size will be 414 million passengers.

Africa will grow by 5.1%. By 2035 it will see an extra 192 million passengers a year for a total market of 303 million passengers.

Edited by Peter Needham. Read more > http://mbooth.ly/2e2fguu

Breakthrough! Video shows robot co-pilot flying plane

Projections by IATA, indicating that hundreds of thousands of pilots will be needed over the next 20 years, have coincided with a separate development – the arrival of a robot co-pilot, with a video showing one already flying an aircraft.

A new advanced robotics system that functions as a co-pilot has been successfully tested in flight in the US, Aurora Flight Sciences announced this week. The system is called Aircrew Labor In-Cockpit Automation System (ALIAS).

A video of the robot in action can be viewed here:

The development has renewed speculation that airlines, especially low-cost carriers, might rather like the arrival of something that allows them to replace a high-cost pilot with a machine that doesn’t tire, run out of hours or require payment.

Other people, however, say you can’t beat a human, and that having a pilot alone on the flight deck with a robot is not sound practice, either psychologically for the pilot, or on safety grounds.

Aurora is developing the system under contract for the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which has said it envisages ALIAS as “a tailorable, drop-in, removable kit that would promote the addition of high levels of automation into existing aircraft, enabling operation with reduced onboard crew,” aviation site AvWeb reports.

The goal is to reduce pilot workload, improve mission performance, and increase aircraft safety. The system will next be tested in flight in a Bell UH-1 helicopter.

Aurora says it plans to develop ALIAS for commercial use as well as military applications. It says it has demonstrated the technology successfully on three separate aircraft, in less than a year.

Written by Peter Needham. Read more > http://mbooth.ly/2e2bOA4

Political tour operator packages Trump and Clinton

Political Tours, the world’s only travel company specialising in tours based on news and current affairs, has two spaces left on its US Election Tour, departing 2 November 2016 and guided by former correspondents from the New York Times and CNN.

Political Tours’ US Election Tour focuses on the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The itinerary takes clients to Ohio and Washington DC.

The company also runs a parallel US Election Tour that visits Florida and Washington DC. The tours are designed to unfold like a news documentary.

Director Nicholas Wood, who set up Britain-based Political Tours in 2011, says the US Election Tour 2016 is proving “one of our most popular tours yet”.

Clinton

CLINTON

Wood was formerly New York Times Correspondent for the Balkans from 2003 to 2008. He has also worked for the BBC, The Guardian, The Observer, The Washington Post and CBS’s 60 Minutes.

The firm’s tours head to tricky places that other tours avoid. They have titles like Modern Iran, Putin’s Russia, Bosnia & Serbia, Israel & Palestine, North Korea, Erdogan & The Anatolian Tigers (a Turkey Tour), plus a Scotland Tour called The Road to Independence. Another one (a must for Brexit fans) is called London & The Financial Crisis.

“Some of my highlights include one of Ayatollah Khomeini’s closest advisors feeding our group spoonfuls of jelly at a magnificent lunch in Tehran,” Wood says. Other highlights: “Tea in a Palladian mansion in the heart of the West Bank, and hushed conversations with security officials about Russia’s latest moves in Ukraine”.

Flags in Washington DC

FLAGS IN WASHINGTON DC

“In Cuba and Iran we examine growing ties with the United States.”

The US Election Tour 2016 will spend the last week before polling day in Ohio and Washington DC. Polling day is 8 November 2016 and Ohio has carried every president to Washington since Kennedy. The state is also seen as a microcosm of American politics; the big issues of the campaign, jobs, union rights, taxation, healthcare and even gay marriage are all centre stage.

Trump

TRUMP

“We meet with local communities and leaders accompanied by the best analysts in the state. In DC we speak to leading Democrats and Republicans as well as some of the country’s leading political scientists in the last few days before the vote,” Wood says.

The tour is being led by former correspondents from CNN, the New York Times and Dayton Daily News.

Written by Peter Needham. Read more >http://mbooth.ly/2dQN9eg

7 Facts about the Panama Canal

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DID YOU KNOW?

  • Builders quite literally moved mountains to make this dream a reality.
  • More than 27 million kilos of dynamite was used to excavate and construct the canal.
  • In 1963 fluorescent lighting was installed, allowing the canal to begin operating 24 hours a day.
  • The United States originally wanted to build a canal in Nicaragua, not Panama.
  • The fastest transit was completed in 2 hours 41 minutes by the U.S. Navy’s Hydrofoil Pegasus in 1979.
  • Between 13,000 and 14,000 ships use the canal every year.
  • The Canal transports 4 percent of world trade.

Transit the magnificent and historical Panama Canal in all-inclusive luxury. Reserve your suite and witness the iconic engineering feat first-hand.

Read more here > http://mbooth.ly/2eAXFdE

Singapore Airlines launches non-stop SIN to SFO

singapore-airlines-launches-non-stop-sin-to-sfo

 

Singapore Airlines launches non stop SIN to SFO October 25, 2016 America, Asia, Australia, Aviation News, Top Stories No comments Singapore Airlines launches non stop SIN to SFO Singapore Airlines launches non stop SIN to SFO Singapore Airlines has launched its new Singapore-San Francisco service, linking Singapore with the US West Coast on a non-stop basis.

The new flights will be operated daily using Airbus A350-900 aircraft. The inaugural flight, SQ32, departed Singapore Changi Airport at 0925hrs local time yesterday and arrived at San Francisco Airport at 0850hrs local time this morning.

The aircraft deployed for the inaugural flight is Singapore Airlines’ sixth A350-900, which also happens to be the 10,000th aircraft delivered by Airbus. This milestone aircraft was received at a special ceremony in Toulouse, France earlier this month and has a “10,000th Airbus Aircraft” logo on the fuselage.

The new flights are the longest in the Singapore Airlines network. Flying time will range between 14:35hrs and 17:45hrs depending on direction and time of year. Customers departing from Singapore and San Francisco were treated to an assortment of food and beverages at special boarding gate events held to commemorate the inaugural flights. Customers received an exclusive gift pack containing collectables and three lucky passengers walked away with 10,000 KrisFlyer miles as well as S$350 worth of KrisShop vouchers during a special game segment held at the gatehold room.

With advanced technology and superior operating efficiency, the A350-900 offers customers an improved travelling experience with features such as higher ceilings, larger windows, an extra wide body and lighting designed to reduce jetlag.

Singapore Airlines took delivery of its first A350-900 in March and now has six of the aircraft type in its fleet, with another 61 on firm order, including seven of the ultra-long-range A350-900ULR variant. Singapore Airlines is the launch customer for the A350-900ULR, for which deliveries will begin in 2018.

The aircraft will be used to re-launch non-stop flights between Singapore and both New York and Los Angeles. SIA serves San Francisco twice-daily, with the other flight operating via Hong Kong. Singapore Airlines also serves the US cities of Los Angeles via both Seoul Incheon and Tokyo Narita, Houston via Moscow, and New York JFK via Frankfurt. (Houston services will be operated via Manchester rather than Moscow with effect from 30 October 2016).

Read more at http://www.etbtravelnews.com